Mitihoon – InnovestX Securities, the investment flagship of SCBX Group, continues to deliver comprehensive and in-depth investment insights to help investors make informed decisions in all market conditions. The company releases its Q3/2025 outlook, highlighting continued global economic pressure from “mild stagflation,” persistent inflation in the U.S., and unresolved global trade tensions. Meanwhile, Thailand’s economy remains fragile due to high household debt, political uncertainty, and sluggish domestic consumption. The Bank of Thailand (BOT) is expected to cut policy rates twice more this year to support the economy. InnovestX maintains its SET Index target at 1,250, recommending entry points below 1,100. Top stock picks include BCH, CPF, DIF, MTC, and SCC—companies with strong fundamentals.
For offshore markets, InnovestX advises cautious portfolio diversification, focusing on high-quality, stable-growth equities, particularly defensive sectors such as utilities and telecommunications. Select emerging Asian markets may also deliver promising returns. The overarching strategy remains: diversify across quality assets to navigate volatility and aim for sustainable long-term returns.
Mr. Sutthichai Kumworachai, Head of Investment Strategy at InnovestX Securities, noted: “In Q3/2025, downside risks in the Thai stock market are limited, but the upside remains modest. While global trade tensions are easing, abrupt policy shifts remain a risk factor. Thailand still faces domestic pressures including weak tourism recovery, agricultural fragility, political instability, high household debt, and subdued private investment. We expect the BOT to lower interest rates twice to cushion the economy. In this environment, allocating to quality assets is key—returns may be modest, but volatility is high.”
Dr. Piyasak Manason, Head of Economic Research at InnovestX Securities, added: “In Q3, the global economy is expected to continue facing risks from prolonged trade tensions. The U.S. economy will likely decelerate due to tariff impacts. The Federal Reserve is not expected to cut rates, and inflation could rise to 3.6%. Close attention must be paid to inflation trends, consumption, and employment data. In China, although signs of a slowdown persist, fiscal stimulus measures should provide some support. For Thailand, multiple risks remain—particularly the Reciprocal Tariff announced on July 7, which significantly threatens our GDP forecast for 2025 of 1.4%, based on a 15% tariff assumption. We
believe the U.S.–Vietnam trade deal signed on July 2, 2025, could serve as a potential reference point for Thailand’s trade negotiations. This may require: (1) Reducing Thai import tariffs on U.S. goods to 0%, similar to Vietnam, and (2) Significantly increasing imports from the U.S. If negotiations succeed and tariffs are lowered to 15–20%, Thailand’s GDP could grow 1.1–1.4% in 2025 (30% probability). If tariffs are in the range of 21–28%, GDP growth may flatten to 0.0–1.0% (50% probability). In a worst-case scenario, with tariffs at 29–36%, Thailand’s GDP could contract by –0.1% to –1.1% (20% probability).”
Mr. Sitthichai Duangrattanachaya, Head of Investment Strategy at InnovestX Securities, stated: “InnovestX maintains its 2025 SET Index target at 1,250. We view levels below 1,100 as attractive buying opportunities. The market’s recovery still relies on accommodative monetary policy, accelerated public investment, and stable system liquidity. Our key strategy for Q3 is selective stock picking—focusing on companies with strong fundamentals, diversified revenue sources, reasonable valuations, and exposure to megatrends such as domestic infrastructure and global trade recovery. Our top stock picks include BCH, CPF, DIF, MTC, and SCC, which align with all five of our selection criteria.” “For global markets, we continue to emphasize diversification into sectors with steady growth potential. We are increasing exposure to defense-related investments, reducing weight in technology and semiconductors, which have started to slow, and focusing on domestic demand plays—especially in Asia. China remains on a recovery path, supported by government stimulus. Recommended global stocks include: United States: AMD, Constellation Energy, Goldman Sachs, Microsoft, Netflix, RTX Europe: BNP Paribas, Deutsche Telekom, Iberdrola, Rheinmetall, SAP, Siemens China: CATL, China Mobile, Hong Kong Exchange, SMIC, Tencent, Trip.com”
Dr. Rhatsarun Tanapaisankit, Head of Investment Strategy & Trading Product Specialist, stated: “The core investment strategy for Q3/2025 is maintaining a ‘balanced portfolio’—diversifying across asset classes and regions to mitigate risks amid continued global uncertainties stemming from geopolitics, monetary policy shifts, and the trajectory of U.S. interest rates. In the safe-haven space, gold remains attractive, supported by continued central bank accumulation and a weakening U.S. dollar. For fixed income, we recommend focusing on short-duration bonds (less than 2 years), which offer more flexibility and are better equipped to handle inflation risks than long-term bonds.
In equities, we continue to favor emerging markets (EM) and ex-U.S. stocks—particularly Vietnam and China, which show signs of recovery and offer attractive valuations. We also recommend
keeping a close watch on European equities, which are showing signs of economic and earnings recovery. Our recommended funds for Q3/2025—tailored for investors seeking global exposure and long-term growth potential—include:
- UOBSG-H: Invests in SPDR Gold Shares ETF with currency-hedging features
- DAOL-CHINATECH: Focuses on leading Chinese tech stocks such as Xiaomi and Tencent
- PRINCIPLE VNEQ-A: The first Thai mutual fund investing in high-quality Vietnamese equities
- LHHEALTH-A: Targets global healthcare stocks with solid fundamentals and currently attractive valuations
- DR HSHD23: Offers exposure to 50 leading Chinese companies via the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index, with an average dividend yield of 6–8% per year—designed for both income and long-term stability”
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