Mitihoon – Bangkok, 25 September 2025 – InnovestX Securities, the investment flagship of SCBX Group, expects market conditions in Q4/2025 to become clearer, with brighter prospects for the global economy following the U.S. tariff measures that were implemented at lower rates and more gradually than previously announced in April. U.S. interest rates are also turning more accommodative, although inflationary pressures require close monitoring. For Thailand, risks of an economic slowdown persist due to weaker exports and softer domestic activity. Nevertheless, political stability, the appointment of a new economic team, and forthcoming policy measures serve as key supportive factors. InnovestX sets its 2025 SET Index target range at 1,350–1,400 points, identifying levels below 1,200 as attractive entry opportunities. The firm’s core strategy emphasizes selective quality stocks such as AP, CENTEL, DIF, HMPRO, and MTC, alongside a balanced allocation across equities, bonds, gold, and REITs to optimize returns while mitigating long-term volatility.
Mr. Sutthichai Kumworachai, Head of Research Department at InnovestX Securities shared his view on the Q4/2025 economic outlook: “The investment environment in Q4/2025 has become clearer as economic uncertainties ease, supported by faster and stronger-than-expected interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Although the U.S. economy is slowing, it is not entering a recession, which continues to support sentiment for risk assets. At the same time, a weaker U.S. dollar enhances the attractiveness of emerging-market equities, including Thailand. Domestically, greater political clarity has encouraged investors to refocus on the new government’s economic stimulus measures. Together, these factors are helping the SET Index maintain its positive momentum. We continue to recommend diversified portfolio allocation across multiple asset classes—including equities, bonds, and alternative assets such as gold—to generate returns while managing potential volatility risks.”
Dr. Piyasak Manason, Head of Economic Research at InnovestX Securities added, “The global economy in Q4/2025 and into 2026 is showing stronger positive signals. The U.S. implemented the ‘Reciprocal Tariff’ at lower rates than previously announced—around 15% for developed countries and 19–20% for developing countries such as Thailand. This supports global GDP growth of 2.9% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026. Meanwhile, the Fed signaled interest rate cuts in September amid a cooling labor market, though inflationary risks from tariffs remain. China’s economy continues to face structural challenges, with expected growth of only 4.4% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026, despite ongoing government stimulus and the ‘Anti-Involution’ policy aimed at sustaining growth. For Thailand, the economy is expected to slow over the next four quarters, resulting in growth of just 1.8% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026. However, partial support will come from government stimulus measures, infrastructure investment programs, and the appointment of a new economic team under the Anutin administration.”
Mr. Sittichai Duangrattanachaya, Head of Investment Strategy at InnovestX Securities, said, “In Thailand’s equity market for Q4/2025, downside risks are limited, although the upside potential is limited. Investors should focus on risk assets, particularly domestic plays that benefit from the economic recovery, supported by government stimulus measures, a rebound in tourism, the Bank of Thailand’s policy rate outlook, and a stronger baht that helps attract foreign inflows.
InnovestX maintains its 2025 SET Index target at 1,350–1,400 points, viewing levels below 1,200 as attractive entry opportunities. The core strategy is to select fundamentally strong companies with solid balance sheets, benefiting from domestic demand, declining interest rates, and new government policies, while trading at reasonable valuations. Highlighted stocks include AP, CENTEL, DIF, HMPRO, and MTC, which offer both downside protection and long-term growth potential.
At the same time, the global economic outlook is becoming more stable, supporting a positive investment environment. Contributing factors include resilient U.S. growth, China’s ongoing stimulus measures, and the prospect of interest rate cuts by both the Fed and the Bank of Thailand. The recommended strategy is to focus on cyclical and economically sensitive industries, as well as technology stocks that benefit from falling interest rates. Emerging markets also remain supported by stimulus policies and a weaker U.S. dollar. While the upside potential of global equities is limited, further gains are still possible. Highlighted stocks include TSLA, MSFT, NVDA, AAPL, RTX, JPM (U.S.); ASML, LVMH, BAE Systems, ABB, BNP Paribas, L’Oréal (Europe); and Tencent, Alibaba, SMIC, Trip.com, HKEX, Lenovo, and Xpeng/Zeekr (China).”
Dr. Rhatsarun Tanapaisankit, Head of Investment Strategy & Trading Product Specialist at InnovestX Securities commented, “The investment strategy for Q4/2025 should emphasize prudent portfolio allocation and diversification, following the sustained equity rally since April. Our focus remains on high-quality U.S. equities or exposure to the S&P500 Equal-Weight Index under a Catch-up Play theme. At the same time, European equities are supported by fiscal measures and an improving economic outlook, while sectors benefiting from declining interest rates and a weaker U.S. dollar—such as emerging markets—are increasingly attractive. In particular, we continue to recommend Chinese equities, which have been a core part of our strategy since early 2025, as well as Thai equities that stand to benefit from the new government’s economic stimulus policies.
For fixed income, we recommend short- to medium-term investments to mitigate risks from long-term bond volatility. For alternative assets, gold remains an effective hedging tool, while REITs benefit from falling interest rates and the global economic recovery. Thai REITs, in particular, stand out as more attractive than global peers due to their higher dividend yields. Digital assets are also gaining support from clearer regulatory frameworks in many countries, which is boosting investor confidence. Therefore, a well-diversified portfolio mix is recommended to capture return opportunities while managing long-term risks.
Highlighted funds for the quarter, aimed at diversifying risk and creating return opportunities, include China Equity (KFCSI300-A), European Equity (ES-EG-A), Gold (UOBSG-H), and Thai REITs (MPDIVMF). For investors interested in Chinese equities, opportunities are also available through DR23 products linked to leading long-term growth companies such as CATL23, HSHD23, SMIC23, BABA23, and KUAISH23. In addition, U.S. Options can be utilized to enhance returns and hedge risks in U.S. equities, while USD Futures on TFEX provide tools for effective currency risk management.
InnovestX, Your Trusted Investment Platform under SCBX Group One platform. Complete access. Smarter investing in all market conditions, worldwide. For investors seeking global opportunities, explore investment insights and multi-asset strategies from InnovestX at www.innovestx.co.th/cafeinvest and on Facebook: InnovestX.
Investors should carefully understand product characteristics, return conditions, and associated risks before making any investment decision. Digital assets carry inherent risks; please study thoroughly and ensure investments are appropriate for your risk tolerance. Mutual funds have specific features and risks. Investors can obtain further information or the prospectus from InnovestX Securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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