Mitihoon – Mr. Burin Adulwattana, Managing Director and Chief Economist, together with senior executives of KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER, delivered a press briefing on Thailand’s economic and business outlook for 2026. KResearch forecasts Thailand’s economic growth at 1.6 percent in 2026, compared with an estimated 2.0-percent expansion in 2025. Thai merchandise exports are projected to contract, tourism has yet to fully recover, and household consumption is likely to soften. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to cut its policy rate one more time in 2026. In addition, political uncertainty will also warrant close monitoring. On the business front, companies will continue to face challenges from sluggish domestic and external orders, as well as competition from imported products, which will further weigh on production. This raises the risk of the Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) contracting for a fourth consecutive year. Meanwhile, loans in the Thai banking system are projected to shrink by 0.7 percent in 2026, following an anticipated contraction of 2.3 percent in 2025. SME and retail lending – including mortgages and hire-purchase loans – are expected to remain subdued due to constraints in household income and purchasing power. The briefing was held recently at KBank Head Office, Phahon Yothin Building.
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