Mitihoon – Bangkok, 1 October 2026 – InnovestX Securities Co., Ltd. (InnovestX), the investment flagship of SCBX Group, has unveiled its investment outlook and strategy for the fourth quarter of 2026 under the theme “Navigating the Seven.” InnovestX expects investment markets to remain influenced by several key factors that warrant close monitoring through the final quarter of the year. While corporate fundamentals remain resilient, the macroeconomic environment has become increasingly fragile. InnovestX has identified seven key signals that could shape market direction: oil prices, bond yields, political and election risks, severe El Niño conditions, public debt, corporate earnings growth, and AI demand. Against this backdrop, investors are advised to exercise greater caution, focus on quality sectors and stocks, and maintain appropriate portfolio diversification.
Mr. Sutthichai Kumworachai, Head of Investment Strategy & Research at InnovestX Securities Co., Ltd. (InnovestX), said: “The investment landscape in the fourth quarter reflects an increasingly fragile macroeconomic environment, particularly as major central banks resume interest rate hikes and the prolonged conflict between the United States and Iran continues. These developments could create a ‘Chain of Risk,’ beginning with elevated oil prices and feeding through to inflation, interest rate expectations, financing costs, and the Thai baht. Investors therefore need to monitor multiple key signals simultaneously.
“In this environment, developed markets such as the United States, which have demonstrated greater resilience to higher interest rates and are supported by strong corporate fundamentals, appear more attractive than emerging markets. However, this chain of risk could reverse if geopolitical tensions ease and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal. The Thai equity market, meanwhile, continues to benefit from accelerated government budget disbursement and public investment, providing important support for domestic plays. The appropriate strategy at this stage is therefore to exercise greater caution rather than avoid investing altogether, while focusing on quality sectors and stocks and maintaining appropriate portfolio diversification.”
Dr. Piyasak Manason, Head of Economic Research at InnovestX Securities Co., Ltd. (InnovestX), said: “InnovestX maintains its Thai GDP growth forecasts at 2.0% for both 2026 and 2027 despite the flooding in Bangkok. The current flooding differs significantly from the major floods of 2011, as it has been driven by heavy local rainfall rather than a large volume of runoff from the North. The economic impact is therefore expected to be relatively contained and concentrated mainly in the third quarter, while the Thai Chuay Thai Plus Phase 2 measures should help offset some of the impact.
“The broader economy continues to exhibit K-shaped growth, with private investment and exports driven by the AI cycle serving as key growth drivers. In 2027, the main engines of growth are expected to shift increasingly toward the public sector and consumption. Key external factors to watch include oil prices, for which we have raised our average assumptions for 2026 and 2027 to US$90 and US$80 per barrel, respectively; a tendency toward a weaker Thai baht; as well as the direction of interest rates among major central banks and higher bond yields. These will be important variables shaping the economy and financial markets going forward.”
Mr. Sittichai Duangrattanachaya, Head of Investment Strategy at InnovestX Securities Co., Ltd. (InnovestX), said: “Despite macroeconomic fragility, corporate earnings continue to support equity markets overall. EPS estimates for the Thai equity market have been revised upward consistently, particularly in the energy sector, while globally, earnings growth is beginning to broaden beyond technology into other industries.
“However, following the market’s gains, upside potential has become more limited. At the same time, risks from oil prices, inflation, monetary policy, and higher financing costs remain, while El Niño risks and rising chip prices could add further pressure if energy prices do not decline. Investors should therefore avoid chasing prices and wait for appropriate entry points. We believe the U.S. midterm elections could become a turning point in the U.S.–Iran conflict.
“InnovestX has set a 2027 SET Index target of 1,715 points, supported by expectations of a stronger economy in the second quarter, investment, and economic stimulus measures. Meanwhile, around 1,550 points is viewed as a level at which gradual accumulation begins to become attractive. Our strategy continues to favor companies with strong balance sheets, limited exposure to external risks, and clear earnings visibility. Our preferred Thai stocks are AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB, and PR9.”
For international equities, InnovestX favors companies positioned to benefit from AI, including Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Tencent, and Alibaba. Within the semiconductor sector, the focus is on companies positioned at key bottlenecks or benefiting from the Chinese government’s push for domestically produced chips, including Lumentum, Naura, SMIC, and Biren. Investors should also diversify beyond technology into more defensive names such as Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing, Visa, AIA, Walmart, Iberdrola, and China Mobile, as well as dividend themes including Verizon, AXA, Enel, ICBC, and Hang Seng High Dividend (HSHD23).
Mr. Jaranapong Rattanasopa, Head of Investment Product Specialist at InnovestX Securities Co., Ltd. (InnovestX), added: “For investors looking to diversify away from technology stocks, InnovestX recommends M-SCHD, which invests through the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD), focusing on high-quality U.S. dividend stocks. In addition to emphasizing companies with strong fundamentals and a consistent track record of dividend payments, it also provides meaningful diversification away from technology stocks. Technology stocks currently account for less than 10% of SCHD, compared with nearly 40% of the S&P 500.
“In terms of performance this year, SCHD has outperformed the S&P 500, demonstrating that this year’s returns have not been concentrated solely in technology stocks, with high-quality dividend stocks also delivering strong performance. Another noteworthy factor is that SCHD’s correlation with the S&P 500 has declined to approximately 0.3, the lowest level since its inception in 2011. This means that stocks in this segment have been moving less closely in line with the broader U.S. equity market, adding another dimension of diversification to investment portfolios.
“In addition to M-SCHD, which is one of InnovestX’s low-fee Exclusive Funds, investors also have other options for long-term investment. These include M-SCHG, which invests in the Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF (SCHG) to provide exposure to large U.S. companies with growth potential and is also available as an Exclusive Fund. InnovestX also offers DR23, enabling investors to access U.S. ETFs under BlackRock’s iShares brand through three securities: IVV23, which references the S&P 500; IQQ23, which references the Nasdaq-100; and SOXX23, which references the semiconductor sector.”
Overall, InnovestX’s investment strategy for the fourth quarter of 2026 remains selective, with an emphasis on avoiding price chasing, waiting for appropriate entry points, and selecting companies with strong financial positions, clear earnings outlooks, and limited exposure to external risks. Long-term investors may consider gradually accumulating assets through a diversified range of investment products aligned with their investment objectives, investment horizons, and risk tolerance.
INVX app is the investment platform from SCBX Group under the proposition “Your Future, Empowered.” Follow additional investment research and strategies at www.innovestx.co.th/cafeinvest and dr23.innovestx.co.th/dr, as well as via Facebook and LINE Official: @InnovestX
- Investors should understand the product characteristics, return conditions, and risks before making investment decisions.
- Investments in foreign securities may involve foreign exchange risk.
DRs are subject to risks arising from fluctuations in the prices of the underlying foreign securities, foreign exchange risk, issuer risk, and liquidity risk.
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