Mitihoon – InnovestX Securities Co., Ltd. (InnovestX), the investment flagship under SCBX Group, expects global financial markets in 2Q2026 to remain highly volatile due to geopolitical uncertainties. In addition, rising oil prices are increasing the risk of a global economic slowdown, while inflationary pressures may accelerate and potentially impact the direction of monetary policy among major central banks. As a result, markets are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with periods of risk-off sentiment. The US dollar is likely to strengthen, which may negatively impact investments in non-US equity markets, particularly in Europe and Asia, where economies rely heavily on energy imports.
Despite these challenges, InnovestX continues to see investment opportunities and recommends investors adopt a “Stay Invested, Stay Selective” strategy. This includes diversifying portfolios and selecting high-quality assets for long-term investment, particularly in industries supported by structural global economic shifts, such as artificial intelligence and energy infrastructure. For fixed income, InnovestX recommends focusing on short-duration, high-quality instruments to enhance diversification. Gold continues to play a role as a hedge against economic and geopolitical risks in the medium to long term, although it may face short-term pressure from potential shifts in interest rate direction. For the Thai stock market, InnovestX sets its 2026 SET Index target at 1,500–1,530 points.
Mr. Sutthichai Kumworachai, Head of Research Department at InnovestX, said “The investment landscape in 2Q2026 is overshadowed by war-related developments, which have pressured global risk assets since late 1Q2026. The progression of the conflict will remain the key driver of markets in the short term. Concerns over oil supply have led to a rapid surge in prices. If oil prices remain elevated amid prolonged and intensifying conflict, this could lead to downward revisions in global economic forecasts, increased inflationary pressures, and impacts on monetary policy direction, ultimately affecting risk assets.
InnovestX continues to recommend a “Stay Invested, Stay Selective” strategy, emphasizing the importance of asset allocation. Investors should focus on high-quality assets and increase exposure to defensive assets such as short-duration bonds. Gold remains an effective hedge against economic and geopolitical risks in the medium to long term, although it may face short-term pressure from a potential shift toward rising interest rates.
Long-term investment should focus on industries supported by structural global economic changes, including AI, energy infrastructure, and defense.”
Dr. Piyasak Manason, Head of Economic Research at InnovestX, said “The global economy in 2026 is expected to grow at a moderate pace, but faces significantly increased risks following Operation Epic Fury, in which the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran. This conflict differs from previous Middle East wars, as it directly targets energy infrastructure and disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil prices higher. This creates stagflation risks and could force the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to shift from an easing cycle to rate hikes, potentially raising rates to 4.13% in a worst-case scenario. At the same time, the US dollar could appreciate by 10% compared to pre-war levels, putting pressure on emerging market currencies globally.
For Thailand, InnovestX forecasts GDP growth in the range of 1.0–1.7%, depending on how the conflict evolves. In the base-case scenario, GDP is expected to slow to 1.4%. The Monetary Policy Committee is expected to maintain its policy rate at 1.00%, while the Thai baht could weaken to 34 per US dollar.
Thailand remains highly vulnerable to energy risks, with net energy imports exceeding 7% of GDP and over 57% of crude oil sourced from the Middle East. Every 10% increase in oil prices could reduce GDP by 0.04 percentage points and increase inflation by 0.35 percentage points.
If diesel prices rise from 30 to 40 baht, GDP could decline by 0.13 percentage points, while inflation could increase by 1.16 percentage points. Additional pressures include freight costs rising more than twofold, petrochemical shortages, and LNG costs surging by over 100%.”
Mr. Sittichai Duangrattanachaya, Head of Investment Strategy at InnovestX, said: “Investment strategy in a volatile market environment should continue to follow the “Stay Invested, Stay Selective” approach, focusing on assets with consistent earnings growth potential and strong long-term supporting factors.
Key investment themes include technology and digital infrastructure driven by data center expansion, energy and power infrastructure supported by rising electricity demand, and global defense benefiting from increased security budgets.
Recommended global equities include Alphabet, Amazon, TSMC, ASML, Palantir, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, GE Vernova, Advantest, and Goldman Sachs.
For Thai equities, InnovestX maintains its SET Index target at 1,500–1,530 points for 2026, with ICT, tourism, and electronics sectors as key drivers. Recommended stocks include ADVANC, BBL, BDMS, BEM, and GULF, which have strong financial positions, reasonable valuations, and solid earnings growth outlooks.
InnovestX, the investment platform under the SCBX Group—the same group as Siam Commercial Bank—provides investors with Access and Advantage through a comprehensive all‑in‑one platform spanning global markets. Investors can access comprehensive investment information, market insights, and research analysis at www.innovestx.co.th/cafeinvest, as well as through Facebook and LINE Official: @InnovestX.
Investors should study and understand the product features, return conditions, and associated risks before making any investment decision. Investments in foreign securities may involve additional risks related to exchange rate fluctuations.
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